Plug-in cars hit 28% of global sales as Canada reaches 13%

In August 2026, 28% of the new vehicles sold worldwide had a plug. That count covers both battery electric cars and plug-in hybrids, and the University of Calgary's latest Chart of the Week, published Nov. 4, describes the global trend as clearly upward, driven by falling battery costs and rising fuel prices.

The authors' core argument is simple: North Americans reading their own sales data see slow uptake, and that regional view hides much faster adoption almost everywhere else. For a fleet electrification lead or vehicle buyer on this continent, the useful question is why the gap exists. The authors' own answer includes something procurement teams feel directly, which is what's actually for sale here.

Canada's rebate cliff and slow climb

Electric vehicle sales in Canada hit their high point in late 2024, at the same moment that federal, Quebec and B.C. rebates were ending. Shoppers hurried to buy while the incentives were still available, then waited, hoping the programs would come back. According to the University of Calgary, the EV share dropped in one quarter from roughly 15% to about 9%, and it has languished around 10% ever since.

That suggests near-term Canadian demand tracked incentive timing very closely. The rush-then-wait behaviour also means the end of a rebate distorted the data twice: first by pulling purchases forward, then by holding them back while buyers waited for a program that didn't return. For anyone forecasting vehicle turnover or charger usage, the lesson is about volatility. The share moved fast and in one direction when the price signal changed.

August's 13% is the first sign of movement since. The authors are careful to say one month doesn't make a trend, but it arrived while the U.S. share has been falling steadily, which they read as a hint that Canada may be breaking from the U.S. pattern. For fleets running vehicles in both countries, a lasting split would mean two sets of planning assumptions instead of one North American number.

Where plugs are already the default

China is the outlier at the top. Its plug-in share has gone from under 5% in 2020 to more than 60%, which the Calgary authors connect to a full domestic EV supply chain and a heavy reliance on imported fossil fuels, which makes electrification a strategic priority. In Europe, Denmark is above 80% and closing in on Norway's near-universal share, Belgium sits around 45%, and France is above 35%.

The global drivers the authors name, cheaper batteries and higher fuel prices, apply in North America too. That makes France a useful reference point. It's a large market where plug-ins are above 35% of new sales, well over twice Canada's August share, by simple comparison of the two figures. Whatever separates the two markets, battery chemistry isn't the whole explanation.

The models that aren't on North American lots

The Calgary authors list four likely reasons Canada and the U.S. lag. Cheaper gasoline weakens the economic case for switching. Long distances make range and charging more demanding, a problem that shrinks as both improve. Investment and policy for charging networks have lagged. The fourth is supply: lower-cost European and Chinese EVs are harder to find in North America.

Reuters, reporting from Hefei on Oct. 28, showed what that supply gap looks like from inside one automaker. Volkswagen said next-generation models aimed at Global South markets will be built on its Compact Main Platform, paired with the China Electronic Architecture. The company's Hefei research and development centre developed that pairing together with Chinese partners. South America comes first, with the rollout starting there by the end of the decade, and South Africa is also among the overseas markets named.

Frank Han, chief executive of Volkswagen software unit CARIAD China, said South America was chosen first because the market is cost-sensitive and Chinese automakers already have a large presence there. That is the Calgary authors' availability point seen from the seller's side. The cheaper China-developed product goes where buyers are price-driven and Chinese competition is already on the lot.

Volkswagen has named Southeast Asia, Latin America and Africa as possible destinations for China-developed models and ruled out Europe and North America for now. Over the next few years, it also intends to send more Volkswagen and Jetta cars built in China to Africa and South America. That looks a lot like the availability gap in the University of Calgary chart written into a product roadmap.

Deploying the technology in Europe is technically feasible, Han said, but that call belongs to headquarters in Germany, which would weigh factors including geopolitics.

The motive is partly defensive. Volkswagen is losing market share in China, where domestic firms such as BYD and Geely have outpaced foreign rivals in EVs, software and price competition. In the middle of its largest restructuring in 89 years, it wants to turn its China operations from a former profit engine into a cost-efficient development and export base. That marks a shift away from its earlier "In China, for China" strategy. "We call it in China, and beyond," Volkswagen Group CEO Oliver Blume said in a statement.

The technology going abroad isn't entry-level in spec. Volkswagen also unveiled VEGA, a package slated for a 2027 launch that combines 850-volt fast charging with readiness for Level 3 autonomous driving. Reuters also noted that General Motors, Hyundai and Renault are increasingly taking China-developed technology into global markets.

Chinese brands are pushing outward at the same time. A Zacks analysis published on Yahoo Finance puts overseas shipments at about 42% of BYD's third-quarter NEV sales, up around 130%, while its China deliveries fell almost 28% year over year from January to October. That suggests a growing share of low-cost Chinese EV output is looking for export markets. Where it lands, and where it doesn't, would shape which regions get the cheaper models the Calgary authors point to.

For a buyer, the timing is the key detail. Volkswagen is setting market sequences now for vehicles that arrive later this decade. If those decisions hold, North American fleet plans built on the lower price points seen abroad are budgeting for vehicles that may not be offered here.

What would change the read

Supply is only one of the four factors, and the other three don't depend on product plans. Cheaper gasoline would still weaken the case for switching even if every low-cost model arrived tomorrow, and distance only gets easier as range and charging networks grow. Recent forecasts the Calgary authors cite, including J.D. Power's, still expect North American EV sales to grow, just more slowly than expected a year ago, mainly because the U.S. has scaled back earlier support for EV adoption.

That U.S. policy retreat is the backdrop for the Canada signal. If Canada's share keeps rising while U.S. support shrinks, policy rather than product would look like the bigger lever separating the two markets, since both draw on largely the same model lineups. For fleet teams that want the research underneath, the Chart of the Week points to related UCalgary work, including a 2025 IEEE paper on grid integration in commercial fleet electrification and a 2026 study of policy, trade and opinion dynamics in Canada's EV transition.

The authors end with a crossroads: policy that speeds adoption, market forces strong enough to do it alone, or a continent that keeps lagging. Two signals will show which way it goes. One is whether Canada's 13% holds through the autumn sales data. The other is whether Volkswagen's German headquarters revisits the markets it has ruled out.