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Rewriting the Playbook for Predicting Consumer Demand

First Insight approaches retail with a forward looking view to consumers via predictive analytics. Through their extensive longitudinal data they are formulating insights around how consumers are being reconditioned. They are seeing a convergence of demographics and a shift to online happening as people shift to staples and stockpiling, but what does the future…

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First Insight approaches retail with a forward looking view to consumers via predictive analytics. Through their extensive longitudinal data they are formulating insights around how consumers are being reconditioned. They are seeing a convergence of demographics and a shift to online happening as people shift to staples and stockpiling, but what does the future look like?

This week on Retail Refined, learn how Greg Petro and his team are collecting data to access the future as companies will no longer be able to build models on historical data alone.

What Melissa Asked

  • Tell us how First Insight approaches its research?
  • How are you seeing the approach to data shifting during COVID-19?
  • Who are some of your customers/this can be verticals (ie: Brands, manufacturers, etc)
  • What are the early trends that you are seeing and how do you think they will evolve?
  • Follow up to trends, are you starting to see demographics converging in opinion creating more unity amongst generations and their approach to shopping?
  • How does a brand or retailer approach demand/order planning for Q3/Q4?
  • How are you personally prioritizing spend right now?

More About Greg Petro

With decades of experience in retail, economics and growing SaaS businesses, Greg has helped to build First Insight, a technology company transforming how retailers make product and pricing decisions, into the world’s leading platform for creating differentiated products. Greg has extensive knowledge in the retail and technology industry, having held previous roles at i2/JDA, Saks, Inc. and Macy’s. His expertise and dedication to the industry have been touted at events including the NRF Big Show and WWD CEO Summit and in publications such as Wall Street Journal, Fortune, Forbes, CNBC and the Financial Times where he’s discussed how retailers can navigate today’s disruptions. Recently Greg was recognized as one of NRF’s “25 Most Influential People in Retail” and as Ernst & Young’s “Entrepreneur of the Year.”

Melissa will be back every Tuesday with new episodes! In the meantime, tune in every Thursday with Jennifer Kaylo Ruscin on Bricks and Clicks.

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Deloitte: Holiday e-commerce to reach up to $319B in 2026–27

Deloitte: Holiday e-commerce to reach up to $319B in 2026–27

Deloitte forecasts U.S. holiday e-commerce of $316.1 billion to $318.9 billion for November 2026 through January 2027, up 7.5% to 8.4%. Total retail is projected to grow 4% to 4.8% to about $1.7 trillion. The faster online growth rate is a planning input for fulfillment staffing and site readiness.

  • 01Last season's total holiday sales grew 4.1% by Census Bureau count, above the 2.9% to 3.4% range Deloitte had forecast in fall 2025.
  • 02Deloitte's 2025 survey found 33% of U.S. consumers expected to use generative AI somewhere in their holiday shopping; product data quality now matters for machine readers as well as human ones.
  • 03Adobe's and Salesforce's holiday projections landed in late September and October last year, so the next two to six weeks should bring corroborating or conflicting numbers to plan against.

Sep 18, 2026

Club stores drove nearly half of the growth in $330B U.S. store-brand sales

Club stores drove nearly half of the growth in $330B U.S. store-brand sales

Circana reports U.S. private-label sales reached $330 billion, with store brands holding 24% unit share and 23% dollar share of CPG. Club stores drove nearly half of the growth. Circana expects share gains to continue through 2026 at a slower pace as national brands sharpen pricing and innovation.

  • 01Club channels account for nearly half of all U.S. private-brand growth, so a store-brand program benchmarked only against supermarket peers is missing where the volume is actually moving.
  • 02A one-point gap between store-brand unit share (24%) and dollar share (23%) suggests private label is no longer priced far below the market average, which changes the margin math for premium-tier extensions.
  • 03The EU's 50% private-label unit share is more than double the U.S. figure, a reference point for how much headroom exists even as Circana expects the U.S. pace to moderate through 2026.

Sep 17, 2026

Modern Retail: Meta Lab footprint set to nearly double

Modern Retail: Meta Lab footprint set to nearly double

Meta is nearly doubling the store footprint of Meta Lab, its retail concept for Ray-Ban AI glasses, according to Modern Retail. In November 2025, The Wall Street Journal reported on pop-up stores in Los Angeles, Las Vegas, Burlingame and New York City. The stores are built for lingering and selfies. That design brief matters for any brand selling a wearable people must try on.

  • 01Meta designed its Meta Lab pop-ups around dwell time and photo-taking, with coffee stations and full-length mirrors; its creative director told The Wall Street Journal the company wants visitors to bring friends and stay a while rather than move through quickly.
  • 02For brands launching a wearable that shoppers need to see on their own face, Meta’s planned store expansion is a real-world reference point for solving the try-on problem.
  • 03The signal to watch is whether the new Meta Lab locations keep the pop-up format the Journal described or shift toward longer-term leases.

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