U.S. B2B tech spending hit $35.3 billion in the first half of 2026, and the second half looks different

The U.S. B2B technology reseller market generated $35.3 billion in the first half of 2026, growing 10% year over year, according to Circana's latest Future of B2B Technology forecast. The result landed despite what Circana senior technology advisor Mike Crosby described as an uncertain economic environment, with demand across cloud, IT hardware, and software holding firm as organizations continued to modernize infrastructure and refresh aging device fleets.

The second half of the year looks measurably different. Circana projects H2 revenue of $35.7 billion, implying only 6% growth as replacement cycles normalize and purchasing becomes more targeted. For procurement and IT operations leaders planning Q3 and Q4 budgets, the underlying segment mix matters as much as the headline number.

Cloud leads, hardware still dominates by volume

Cloud was the standout performer, reaching $1.69 billion in H1 2026 revenue and growing 15% year over year, according to Circana. The firm expects cloud to maintain that same pace through the second half, making it the only major segment not forecast to decelerate.

IT hardware remains the largest slice of the market by far. The segment produced $17.67 billion in the first six months of the year, representing roughly half of total B2B technology revenue, and grew 11% year over year. Storage hardware, computers, and PC memory were the strongest-performing categories within hardware. Circana attributes those gains to a combination of tighter supply, higher NAND and memory pricing, and enterprise and midmarket organizations trading up to higher-performance configurations during PC refresh cycles.

The nuance: unit shipments are actually declining. Revenue growth is outpacing units because average selling prices are rising, driven by richer configurations and component cost inflation. Circana forecasts hardware growth to moderate to 8% in H2 as replacement cycles stabilize.

Software and services reached $15.98 billion in H1 2026, up 8% year over year. Circana expects that segment to grow 4% in H2, with cybersecurity, managed services, and operational efficiency investments cited as the main support. The moderation reflects more selective buying rather than a pullback in strategic priorities.

What the numbers mean for GTM and revenue operations teams

Strong aggregate spending figures can obscure where deals are actually getting done. Forrester's revenue operations research blog has flagged several shifts this year that are directly relevant to how enterprise vendors and their channel partners should be positioning as growth moderates.

One of the more concrete market structure moves: Vendavo agreed to acquire Model N's high-tech business unit, a transaction Forrester analyst Lisa Singer noted in July 2026 as evidence that the price optimization and management category is converging. The deal adds distributor data, rebates, and channel pricing capabilities to Vendavo's platform, extending its reach into semiconductor and channel-heavy markets. For technology resellers and distributors managing thin margins in a slower-growth H2, tighter pricing infrastructure is less optional than it was 18 months ago.

Forrester analyst Peter Ostrow has separately flagged AI-powered sales role-play as a meaningful shift in how B2B organizations are building seller readiness. The argument, published in July 2026, is that static training methods can no longer keep pace with the complexity of enterprise buying cycles, and that realistic AI simulation is becoming a standard tool for revenue teams at scale-conscious organizations.

Forrester analyst Anthony McPartlin has also noted a pattern he calls the 'Claude Cowboy' dynamic in RevOps: as AI democratizes data analysis, the value of a revenue operations function shifts away from producing reports and toward interpreting signals, managing risk, and guiding decisions. That framing is particularly relevant in a market where segment-level growth rates are diverging. A RevOps team that can tell the difference between a cloud deal that closes fast and a hardware refresh that stalls in procurement adds more value than one running dashboards.

Looking ahead: 5% growth in 2027 and a more selective buyer

Circana's 2027 outlook puts combined B2B technology revenue growth at 5%, a further step down from the 10% pace of H1 2026. The firm frames that as durable rather than alarming. Organizations are expected to keep spending on productivity, security, and infrastructure modernization, but with greater discipline. Crosby noted in Circana's August 2026 release that technology remains one of the most resilient areas of business investment, even as buyers become more selective.

For operations leaders, the practical read is straightforward: the strongest categories through year-end are cloud and cybersecurity-adjacent software, while IT hardware growth will depend heavily on whether enterprise PC refresh timelines accelerate or slip. Average selling prices will stay elevated as long as memory and NAND costs hold, but unit demand is unlikely to recover materially in the near term. The vendors and resellers best positioned for H2 are those who can make the ROI case at the line-item level, not just the portfolio level.