Trucking costs hit a record $2.336 per mile as logistics volatility becomes a permanent operating condition

The average cost to operate a truck in 2025 reached $2.336 per mile, a 3.4% increase from the year before and the highest figure recorded since the American Transportation Research Institute launched its annual benchmarking study in 2016, according to Transport Topics. For fleet operators and procurement teams finalizing 2026 contracts, that number is not a historical footnote: it is the floor they are building budgets on, and several forces now in motion suggest the ceiling has not been found.

A record cost baseline meets a structurally volatile market

The ATRI figure arrives alongside the Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals' 2026 State of Logistics Report, released in June and authored by global consulting firm Kearney, with Penske Logistics as presenting sponsor. The report found U.S. business logistics costs came in at $2.4 trillion for 2025, equivalent to 7.8% of national GDP. That is actually an improvement from the prior year's $2.6 trillion and 8.7% of GDP, according to the PR Newswire release, but Kearney frames the decline as no cause for comfort.

The report identifies five structural forces it says show no signs of resolution: asymmetrical global growth, tightening financial conditions driven by persistent inflation and rising public debt, accelerating trade flow realignment, labor market and productivity constraints, and energy price volatility. Kearney partner and lead report author Korhan Acar described the current environment, per the PR Newswire release, as one where disruptions are no longer temporary but have become enduring features of the operating model, with rising energy costs, inflation, and geopolitical instability compressing margins and forcing operators to rethink conventional approaches.

Fuel volatility is compounding the per-mile cost pressure

For fleet managers, the fuel line in that per-mile figure is being hit from multiple directions simultaneously. A U.S. military strike on an Iranian port pushed Brent crude up 3.9% to $87.48 per barrel in mid-July, near a one-month high, according to Transport Topics reporter Stan Choe. Separately, average U.S. pump prices stood at $3.98 per gallon as of July 16, up nearly 20 cents in just 10 days, Transport Topics reported, putting retail diesel and gasoline back in territory that directly affects driver reimbursement and fuel-surcharge negotiations.

A planned maintenance shutdown at a Canadian oil refinery in Saint John adds a regional wrinkle. Transport Topics reporter Nathan Risser noted the closure could tighten gasoline and diesel supply across northeastern U.S. states that rely on the plant for imports. For fleets operating lanes through New England or the mid-Atlantic, that is a procurement exposure worth tracking now, not after spot prices move.

Regulatory and cross-border disruptions add operational complexity

Equipment procurement decisions are being clouded by regulatory uncertainty at the federal level. Volvo Group CEO Martin Lundstedt, speaking during the company's Q2 2026 earnings call, said the EPA's recent NOx proposal makes the truck sales outlook difficult to read, according to Transport Topics reporter Keiron Greenhalgh. The comment signals that OEM order planning and fleet replacement cycles may face delays while the regulatory picture firms up, a direct concern for fleet directors managing age-of-equipment and compliance timelines.

Cross-border operations are also being reshaped. Intensified federal cabotage enforcement is reducing the presence of Mexican carriers in U.S. border zones, Transport Topics reported, as federal agencies take a harder line on violations. That pressure on cross-border capacity arrives at the same time that ArcBest announced it would close 10 ABF Freight service centers in smaller markets and cut approximately 2% of its workforce, consolidating those operations into regional facilities, according to Transport Topics reporter Keiron Greenhalgh. The moves illustrate how carriers are rationalizing their own footprints under cost pressure even as shippers demand more coverage.

What the CSCMP report says operators should do now

The 2026 State of Logistics Report, released by CSCMP in June, does not simply document the pressure: it identifies where investment attention needs to go. According to the PR Newswire release, Kearney's strategic implications for the current environment include designing supply chains for resilience rather than pure efficiency, prioritizing asset productivity over footprint expansion, building end-to-end visibility, accelerating digital and automation ROI, and reassessing capital structure and investment pacing.

On technology, the report notes that AI has crossed from experimentation to measurable commercial returns in specific, well-defined applications. It defines AI's supply chain value across four capabilities: interpreting, predicting, recommending, and executing. Adoption remains uneven, with a notable gap between organizations that have embedded AI into core workflows versus those still running isolated point solutions. The report connects this gap directly to labor constraints, finding that companies are responding to workforce tightness with accelerated automation and digital investment.

CSCMP president and CEO Mark Baxa, quoted in the PR Newswire release, described the current supply chain as requiring constant adjustments and predicted that next year's logistics network will look substantially different from today's. For operations leaders, the more immediate question is whether their current carrier contracts, fuel hedging positions, and technology stack were built for a market where $2.336 per mile is the starting point, not the ceiling.

• Audit carrier contracts and fuel-surcharge clauses against ATRI's $2.336/mile 2025 baseline before renewing agreements.
• Model northeast fuel supply exposure given the Saint John refinery shutdown and Brent crude's return to $87+ per barrel.
• Assess EPA NOx rulemaking timelines before committing to heavy truck replacement or expansion orders.
• Evaluate cross-border lane coverage plans given reduced Mexican carrier availability in U.S. border zones.
• Map AI adoption against CSCMP's four-capability framework (interpret, predict, recommend, execute) to identify gaps in core workflows versus point solutions.