Medicus report projects 24% more surgery center cases and 2027 anesthesiology, GI shortages

Over the next decade, case volumes at ambulatory surgery centers are expected to grow 24%. National workforce projections, meanwhile, show clinician shortages arriving in 2027 in several specialties whose work feeds ASC caseloads. Medicus Healthcare Solutions, a locum tenens and workforce firm based in Windham, N.H., reported both findings Oct. 29 via PR Newswire in a report titled Ambulatory Surgery Centers: Market Growth, Workforce Pressures, and Operational Demands.

Place those two figures on the same calendar and the sequence becomes important. The 24% rise in ASC volumes is spread across ten years, but the national workforce projections have shortages hitting in 2027 in several specialties, anesthesiology and gastroenterology among them. For operators planning outpatient coverage, the earlier shortage date, rather than the decade-long volume curve, could end up setting the pace.

Who owns the growth, and where

According to Medicus, the report combines industry research, national data and the company's own proprietary data. Its starting point is how far care has already moved. Outpatient settings now account for more than 80% of surgeries. Physicians hold at least some ownership stake in about 90% of ASCs. Four states, Maryland, Georgia, Idaho and Arizona, lead the country in centers per 100,000 residents.

The ownership figure holds up against outside research. Colliers' Q3 2025 healthcare services report, summarized last October by Nathan Eddy at Healthcare Finance News, put the share of ASCs wholly or partially owned by physicians at 92%. Colliers called that ownership both a care model and a financial strategy for practitioners. That suggests a staffing gap could hit physician owners directly, both as clinicians and as investors.

Physicians aren't the only money in the sector. Colliers also found private equity and corporate entities investing heavily in ASC infrastructure to capitalize on the growth trajectory. That widens the set of owners with capital riding on whether centers can actually staff the volume they are projected to get.

The state ranking matters in a narrower sense. Measured per 100,000 residents, Maryland, Georgia, Idaho and Arizona have more ASCs than any other states. That could put operators there among the first to feel the shortages projected for 2027.

The specialties on the 2027 list

Hailey Bosek of Becker's ASC Review wrote about the report on the day it was released, framing it as a surge in volume that the industry may lack the staff to handle. The report bases its shortage findings on national workforce projections. Those show clinician shortages in 2027 in several specialties tied to ASC case volume, anesthesiology and gastroenterology included. If both trends hold, surgery centers will face more cases with fewer of the clinicians needed to staff them.

This report also caps a year of specialty-by-specialty research from Medicus. Its research library lists "Addressing the Gastroenterologist Shortage" on May 28, 2026, "The State of Anesthesia Care Delivery" on Aug. 27, "General Surgery at a Critical Point" on Sept. 16 and "A System Under Strain: Rising Demands in Emergency Medicine" on Oct. 7. The same library shows an earlier study, "The Anesthesia Provider Shortage," dated June 26, 2025, so anesthesia has now drawn two dedicated Medicus reports in about 14 months.

Those companion releases offer a useful baseline, because they come from the same publisher using the same ten-year framing. Medicus' emergency medicine release projected ED volumes growing 6% over the next decade, a quarter of the ASC figure. Its general surgery release put the U.S. shortfall at 2,020 full-time-equivalent general surgeons in 2026, widening to 3,170 by 2031.

Read together, the volume figures suggest Medicus sees outpatient surgery as the fastest-growing demand line among the settings it studied this year. The general surgery numbers add a second lesson. In that specialty the firm's projected gap is already open in 2026 and grows by more than half over five years. If the 2027 anesthesiology and GI shortages follow a similar shape, operators would be planning for a gap that widens after it opens, not one that peaks and fades.

Two forecasts, two different windows

The 24% figure needs a careful read before it goes into a capacity model. Colliers projected ASC volumes expanding 9% between 2023 and 2028. Medicus projects 24% over the next decade. The windows differ in length and start date, and neither published summary spells out how volume is counted, so you can't line the two numbers up directly.

Medicus describes itself as a locum tenens and healthcare workforce solutions company, and its MedicusOne platform, an AI-powered contingent workforce tool, gives healthcare leaders real-time visibility into schedules, coverage and spend. It also runs a fully managed model in which one team handles recruiting, credentialing, travel, scheduling and onboarding for physicians and advanced practice providers, along with a Medicus Transition Program it says rapidly stabilizes and rebuilds clinical services.

In other words, the company publishing the shortage forecast sells coverage, and the announcement ran as a paid press release. Still, the release attributes the 2027 shortages to national workforce projections, and its ownership figure lands within about two points of Colliers' independent estimate.

Why cases keep moving out of hospitals

Colliers also explained why the volume keeps coming. Procedures done in ASCs cost less than half as much as the same work in hospital outpatient departments. At the time of that report, the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services had recently approved two dozen new ASC procedure codes, which widens what can be done off a hospital campus.

The firm linked the growth to a wider move toward outpatient care, fueled by new technologies, reimbursement policies that work in its favor, and demand for treatment that costs less and is easier to access. Those savings grow larger, it said, because of advances in minimally invasive surgery, better recovery drugs and policies that push for site-neutral payments.

Colliers said technology-driven progress in orthopedics, cardiology and spine surgery is making it possible to move complex procedures into outpatient settings. According to the report, the expansion of these services is opening higher-margin opportunities for ASCs, on top of traditional specialties like gastroenterology and ophthalmology. That suggests centers taking on those cases could face a higher clinical staffing bar as the 2027 projections approach.

That last clause is where the two reports meet. Colliers counts gastroenterology among the traditional ASC specialties, the base business underneath the newer orthopedic and spine growth. Medicus puts gastroenterology on its 2027 shortage list, which suggests the squeeze could reach a core service line, not only the expansion cases. Cardiology appears on both sides as well: Colliers names it as a field moving complex work outpatient, and Medicus devoted an April 9 report to the cardiology workforce.

Scale changes how a shortage plays out. Colliers found the five largest operators control the majority of ASCs under national operator partnerships, naming United Surgical Partners International, Surgical Care Affiliates, AmSurg and HCA among the large players, with SurgCenter Development now acquired by USPI. It also said hospitals increasingly treat ASCs as a central element of strategy rather than just a budget item.

That suggests a large network could spread a thin anesthesia or GI market across many sites, while a single-site, physician-owned center could have a much smaller roster to absorb the same national shortage.

Chicago this week, 2027 next

Becker's 32nd Annual Meeting: The Business and Operations of ASCs runs Oct. 29-31 in Chicago. Becker's ASC Review says the meeting brings together ASC leaders, surgeons and healthcare executives to explore ways to grow, improve operational performance, work through reimbursement challenges and get ready for where ambulatory surgery is headed.

A new data point from a large operator shows why volume figures need a careful read. Becker's ASC Review reported that USPI, the Dallas-based ASC arm of Tenet Healthcare, posted third-quarter revenue of $1.37 billion, up 7.5%, while its same-facility surgical cases slipped. Because revenue and case counts can move in opposite directions, an operator testing the Medicus sequence would track cases and coverage, not dollars alone.

The test could come in 2027. If ASC coverage in anesthesiology and gastroenterology tightens through 2027 while case counts keep rising, the Medicus sequence holds and staffing sets the pace for outpatient growth. If volumes climb without that squeeze, the national projections will have overstated the gap for surgery centers specifically.