U.S. supply chain leaders abandon "return to normal" as logistics costs settle and India's freight network expands

U.S. shipping and inventory costs fell to 7.8% of GDP in 2025, according to the Wall Street Journal's report on the Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals' annual State of Logistics Report. That figure looks encouraging on paper. The people running the networks are not encouraged.

Doug Cantriel, head of North American transportation and modernization at Ford Motor, told a panel discussion tied to the report that normalcy in global supply chains is simply not returning. The comment, reported by the Wall Street Journal, reflects a posture that has become common among large industrial operators: stop waiting for stable conditions and start building networks that assume volatility as the baseline.

That shift in mindset has real budget implications. Flexible logistics networks typically carry higher fixed costs than lean, optimized ones. Maintaining buffer inventory, qualifying multiple carriers, and running parallel sourcing channels all consume capital that efficiency-driven procurement programs spent years eliminating.

Ocean rates and geopolitical friction keep pressure on

Even as the 2025 GDP-share figure declined, the Wall Street Journal noted that ocean container rates are rising again in 2026. Disruptions cited in the report include the conflict in Iran and continuing trade negotiations, both of which have pushed shippers to seek routing flexibility rather than lowest-cost point-to-point contracts. For operations teams managing import schedules, that means rate forecasting windows have shortened and spot market exposure has grown.

The practical response from many large shippers has been to diversify port calls, add contract carriers as backups, and increase visibility tooling investment. None of those moves is cheap, and the full cost impact does not always appear in the headline logistics-cost-to-GDP metric.

India's freight infrastructure draws global capital

While U.S. operators reconfigure domestic networks, a parallel shift is happening in South Asia that will affect anyone sourcing from or routing through India. Indian rail freight reached 142 million tonnes in June 2026, a 4% year-over-year gain, according to Logistics Outlook. That growth is running alongside government investment in capacity: Indian Railways has committed ₹499 crore to a rail-doubling project in Bihar, targeting one of the country's most congested freight corridors, per Logistics Outlook.

The more immediately visible development is on the coast. Adani Ports sold a 49% equity stake in Vizhinjam Port to Terminal Investment Limited, the port arm of the Mediterranean Shipping Company, for $1.397 billion, Logistics Outlook reported. Vizhinjam sits at the southern tip of India, close to international east-west shipping lanes, and is designed as a deepwater transshipment hub capable of handling the largest container vessels currently in service.

Bringing TiL into the ownership structure gives MSC a direct economic interest in routing its vessels through the port, which could alter transshipment patterns for cargo currently connecting through Colombo or Singapore. For procurement and logistics teams that source from Indian manufacturing clusters, the port's development could eventually change transit time options and minimum connection schedules on Europe and Gulf routes.

Fleet diversification adds another layer

India-focused maritime operators are also signaling capacity ambitions. SHM Global CEO Mohammed Hajee, in an interview published by Logistics Outlook, described plans to expand into new markets and build larger vessels, reflecting broader momentum in regional shipbuilding and fleet investment. Larger vessels on regional routes generally improve per-unit freight economics but can also concentrate risk when port infrastructure or berth availability lags vessel size growth.

Taken together, the signals from both markets point in the same direction: the global freight system is being rebuilt around new assumptions rather than restored to a pre-disruption template. For operations and procurement leaders, the planning question is no longer when conditions will stabilize but which infrastructure investments, carrier partnerships, and routing architectures are worth locking in for the medium term.

What this means for your team

• Revisit carrier contracts that assume rate stability: ocean spot rates are rising in 2026 even as the annual logistics cost metric improved, suggesting the 2025 figure understates current exposure.
• Evaluate Vizhinjam Port's role in India-origin routing strategies, particularly for cargo currently connecting through Colombo, given MSC's TiL now has a direct ownership stake in the hub.
• Model the Bihar rail-doubling project's timeline into sourcing plans for manufacturers in eastern India; improved inland connectivity could change landed-cost calculations once capacity comes online.
• Build network flexibility as a line item rather than an exception budget: Ford's public stance confirms that large industrial operators are treating volatility as a structural condition, not a temporary one.