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Professor of Marketing

Katrijn Gielens

Katrijn Gielens is an internationally recognized expert in the areas of international retailing and product innovation. Dr. Gielens teaches courses in international retail management and econometric and market response models. Before she joined UNC Kenan-Flagler, she served on the faculty of the RSM Erasmus University, one of UNC Kenan-Flagler’s OneMBA partners, and Tilburg University.

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Contributor Brief·Katrijn Gielens · 1 article
Updated Sep 19, 2023

Retail theft erodes store economics, forcing fundamental viability reassessment

Gielens argues that rising shoplifting has fundamentally altered the cost-benefit calculus of physical retail, making store closures and format shifts economically rational rather than signs of failure. She contends that retailers must now actively weigh whether maintaining brick-and-mortar presence remains viable when theft losses compress already-thin margins beyond operational sustainability.

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U.S. retailers report inventory shrinkage from organized retail crime

“Retail theft is no longer a minor operational cost—it's reshaping where stores exist.”

Retail Theft is Pushing Stores to Weigh the Risk of Keeping a Physical Presence

Store closure drivers and loss categories forcing retail recalibration

Organized retail crime losses8
Compression of operating margins8
Rising security and loss-prevention costs7
Geographic store viability reassessment7
Shift to format alternatives (online, smaller format)6

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22%Organized retail
Organized retail crime losses
Compression of operating margins
Rising security and loss-prevention costs
Geographic store viability reassessment
+1 more

$112B+

Annual U.S. retail theft losses, forcing strategic recalibration

Retailers cannot simply increase prices to offset theft; consumer elasticity sets hard limits.

Retail Theft is Pushing Stores to Weigh the Risk of Keeping a Physical Presence

The era of loss-leader pricing and thin margins may no longer be compatible with physical retail.

Retail Theft is Pushing Stores to Weigh the Risk of Keeping a Physical Presence

“Some retailers will exit markets entirely rather than fight an unwinnable theft economics battle.”

Themes:Theft as structural viability constraint, not manageable frictionMargin compression narrows retailer response optionalityStrategic retreat and format innovation as rational adaptation

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