# Nvidia's China AI chip share is forecast to collapse from 40% to 8% as Huawei scales

By MarketScale Newsroom · Published 2026-08-09 · Transportation on MarketScale
Canonical: https://www.marketscale.com/industries/transportation/nvidias-china-ai-chip-share-is-forecast-to-collapse-from-40-to-8-as-huawei-scales

> Bernstein projects Nvidia's China AI chip share will fall from 40% to 8% in 2026, even as Siemens taps NVIDIA for agentic AI in supply chains.

## Key points

- Nvidia's AI chip market share in China is expected to plummet from 40% to 8% by 2026.
- Huawei's expansion is a key factor in Nvidia's shrinking market position in China.
- Siemens is utilizing Nvidia's technology for AI applications in supply chain management.

## A forecast that redraws the AI chip map

Nvidia held roughly 40% of China's AI chip market as recently as 2025, neck-and-neck with Huawei. By the end of 2026, Bernstein, the global equity research and brokerage firm, projects that figure will collapse to around 8%, while Huawei's share rises to approximately 50%, according to reporting by Fast Company and the Associated Press. For enterprise technology buyers and supply chain leaders evaluating AI infrastructure vendors, that is not an investor story. It is a sourcing risk signal.

The shift is the compounded result of two forces working in tandem. U.S. export controls, first imposed in 2019 and progressively tightened, blocked China from buying Nvidia's most advanced AI chips and the ASML extreme ultraviolet lithography machines needed to manufacture comparable silicon domestically. In response, Beijing redirected procurement toward domestic chipmakers, with Huawei emerging as the primary beneficiary. By the time the Trump administration negotiated a limited reprieve allowing sales of Nvidia's H200 chips to China, the market had already pivoted.

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang, speaking with the Associated Press, said the company previously held roughly 95% market share in China before export controls effectively shut it out. He framed the dilemma plainly: protecting national security and aggressively competing in global markets are goals that must be pursued simultaneously, not sequentially.

## Sources

- [Siemens, NVIDIA & DP World: Top Supply Chain News This Week](https://supplychaindigital.com/news/siemens-nvidia-dp-world-top-supply-chain-news-this-week) (Supply Chain Digital)
- [Nvidia's AI chip sales stall in China as domestic firms take share](https://www.fastcompany.com/91566663/nvidias-ai-chip-sales-are-stalling-in-china-heres-whos-gaining-market-share) (Fast Company / Associated Press)
- [Nvidia's AI chip sales stall in China as domestic firms take ...](https://www.fastcompany.com/91566663/nvidias-ai-chip-sales-are-stalling-in-china-heres-whos-gaining-market-share?utm_medium=social&utm_source=linkedin) (Fast Company)

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