# Why Arla’s APAC lead says Asia’s GLP-1 shift hinges on price and pills

By MarketScale Newsroom · Published 2026-11-12 · Food & Beverage on MarketScale
Canonical: https://www.marketscale.com/industries/food-beverage/why-arla-says-glp-1-food-demand-in-asia-hinges-on-price-and-pills

> Arla's APAC head sees GLP-1 use in Asia lagging the US. Generics, reimbursement and pills will set the pace, and US basket data shows what follows.

## Key points

- EY-Parthenon survey data shows US GLP-1 users cutting back on sweet and salty snacks, which could help APAC food makers plan while adoption in Asia is still early.
- Products built to deliver more nutrition in smaller portions don't depend on drug uptake. Among US consumers managing their weight, far more cut calories or exercise than take medication.

Alexander Leufgen runs Asia Pacific for Arla Food Ingredients, one of the dairy-protein suppliers getting ready for GLP-1 weight-loss drugs to change what people eat. His read of the region, given to FoodNavigator's Pearly Neo this week, is blunt: awareness is climbing faster than actual use, and he has yet to see the consumer-driven momentum that turned the drugs into a food-industry story in the US.

That gap is a planning problem for anyone setting APAC product roadmaps or protein supply contracts. Leufgen still sees significant long-term potential, with China the biggest prize. The timing, in his account, depends on three things no food company controls: drug pricing, reimbursement, and the shift from injections to more convenient oral therapies.

## Four hurdles between Asia and US-style uptake

Leufgen explains the US lead with two factors: high obesity rates and a strong consumer preference for fast, visible results, which a weight-loss injection delivers better than diet and exercise. He expects Europe and Oceania to follow, since they share similar health trends, although approvals and product launches there have trailed the US.

Asia is a different case. He lists affordability, limited reimbursement, uneven healthcare access and lower awareness as the main obstacles. Obesity rates are also generally lower than in the US, which shrinks the population that would be prescribed or covered for the drugs in some countries. Then there is culture: in many markets people are wary of taking a medication long term.

Most of that list is about healthcare, not food. A snack reformulation can't change a reimbursement policy. For APAC operators, the useful conclusion is that the pace of the food shift will be set somewhere else, so it makes sense to track those signals directly instead of guessing from category sales.

## Generics and pills could change the pace

The price picture is already moving. China and India have begun producing generic versions of GLP-1 drugs since Novo Nordisk's semaglutide patent expired, and China has developed several alternatives of its own, FoodNavigator reported. Cheaper drugs should widen access, although they don't fix awareness, cultural acceptance or regulatory hurdles.

The US shows what easier dosing can do. In December, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration cleared the first GLP-1 pill for treating obesity. On the company's fourth-quarter call, McDonald's CEO Chris Kempczinski said the pill was already seeing strong adoption, according to Restaurant Business. The same report cited Charlie McConnell, vice president of industry insights at IFMA, The Food Away from Home Association, who estimated that about 22% of consumers are interested in the drugs but not yet taking them. In his view, cost and insurance coverage are now the biggest barrier, more so than the way the drug is delivered.

For scale, a November KFF Health tracking poll found that about 12% of US adults say they take a GLP-1 to lose weight or treat a chronic condition. Put together, the two figures suggest more people are interested but not taking the drugs than are already on them. McConnell named the trigger plainly. In his view, a meaningful drop in costs is the point where this stops being a trend to watch and becomes a force capable of reshaping how people dine. The same test applies in APAC, where generic production in China and India is already pushing costs down.

Put those together and the APAC watchlist gets specific. Leufgen named the same factors that are moving undecided Americans, price and pills, and China is where both could come together, depending on regulatory updates and whether oral products become available.

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## What US shopping carts already show

US companies had to work out the category effects as they happened. APAC companies can read them now. EY-Parthenon's third annual GLP-1 Consumer Impact Report, published October 22 and based on a March-to-May 2026 survey of 14,883 general-population respondents and 3,602 current or former users, found that for the first time a majority of US users (54%) take the drugs mainly for weight management rather than diabetes or other conditions. Because the survey compares its results with the 2024 and 2025 editions, it tracks a trend rather than a single snapshot.

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Compare that chart with Leufgen's list. He expects gains in protein-rich foods and drinks, functional nutrition, hydration, healthy ageing products and anything that packs more nutrition into each serving. He expects pressure on snacks that haven't been made healthier, confectionery, sugary drinks and products that depend on people eating a lot. The US survey data match his forecast almost category by category.

Beyond the cutbacks on sweet and salty snacks, the same survey shows the pattern reaching the drinks aisle: 51% of users report drinking fewer soft drinks and 44% more functional beverages, while 45% have reduced alcohol and 40% have stopped altogether. That lines up with Leufgen's calls on sugary drinks and hydration. While adoption in Asia is still early, APAC food makers could use that US data to see which categories to watch.

There is a biological reason the shift hits some categories harder than others. A review published in April in Frontiers in Behavioral Neuroscience describes GLP-1 receptor agonists acting through brain pathways that also regulate reward-driven and compulsive behavior, so they reshape food preferences as well as reducing appetite. That would help explain why indulgent snacks lose ground faster than total food volume falls.

Scale matters too. EY found that 94% of surveyed users are their household's main grocery shopper, so one person's prescription can change what the whole household buys. Circana, cited by Restaurant Business, estimated that US households with a GLP-1 user accounted for about 24% of food-and-beverage purchases in late 2025, and expects that share to reach 35% by 2030. EY projects that 35% to 40% of US adults will have used a GLP-1 by 2033. Leufgen's caveat about lower Asian obesity rates suggests APAC may never reach those levels, so the US figures are a guide to which categories move, not to how big APAC demand will get.

Even within the US, the users are not one market. EY sorts them into six distinct personas whose adoption and behavior vary significantly, and it warns brands against a one-size-fits-all approach. For APAC teams borrowing the US category map, that suggests treating it as an average to test locally, not a single shopper profile.

> The opportunity lies in helping consumers obtain more nutrition from smaller portions., Alexander Leufgen, Arla Food Ingredients

## Smaller meals, and less cheese per burger

Leufgen's most specific forecast is about foodservice. He expects fast-food operators to rethink portion sizes, meal composition and nutrition as diners move away from large, calorie-dense meals. If people eat burgers less often and in smaller sizes, he said, the effect could reach ingredients such as the cheese on those burgers. For a dairy ingredient supplier, that is a forecast about its own sales volumes.

US data back up the direction. Circana found GLP-1 users still eat out but order fewer items, concentrating on main dishes and cutting back on sides, snacks and breads. They also lean toward more nutrient-dense dishes, with 63% of those diners actively seeking more vegetables and 55% more fruit. Bank of America's October 2026 restaurant industry report also lists weight-loss drugs among the factors affecting how often people dine out and how much they spend.

The big chains are paying attention before the numbers move. Kempczinski said McDonald's has seen no evidence yet of a material impact, even as it evaluates its menu for an expected rise in users and counts its protein offering as a strength with this customer. Restaurant Brands International, parent of Burger King, Popeyes and Firehouse Subs, now lists increased adoption of weight-loss medications as a risk factor in its 10-K filing.

US chains have mostly responded through marketing, not new recipes. El Pollo Loco launched a Protein Packed Menu of more than 20 items ranging from 23 to 74 grams of protein. Shake Shack CEO Rob Lynch said its Good Fit Menu repackages items the chain already made, adding sales without significant operational or supply chain disruption. Chipotle CEO Scott Boatwright pitched the chain's roughly $3.80 High Protein Cup, a simple cup of chicken, as a smaller-portion option that works as a value play without any discount.

Protein is not free, though. Sweetgreen, which increased protein portions last year, reported a 700-basis-point drop in restaurant-level margins and blamed it partly on higher protein costs. McConnell argued that right-sizing portions is the bigger opportunity, with protein a smart second step, and that smaller portions can also lower operators' food costs. Sweetgreen's margin hit explains why operators like that order: one move cuts food cost, while the other can push it up.

For ingredient suppliers whose APAC volume depends on quick-service chains, smaller portions mean less product per serving even if customer traffic stays flat. This could become a sales-forecasting question well before GLP-1 use becomes widespread, since menu changes in the US arrived ahead of any measurable impact on traffic.

## The shift that doesn't wait for prescriptions

The strongest argument against waiting for APAC uptake comes from data on people who never take the drug. In a Food Industry Executive column, Yannick Verry, brand director of Fi Events, cited Innova data showing that among consumers managing their weight, 64% use exercise and 46% cut calories, while only 9% use medication. Smaller portions and higher expectations for each serving are spreading well beyond drug users, he argued, and he advised brands to promote protein, fiber and portion size rather than naming GLP-1s on the pack.

Verry expects single-serve packs and mini meals to follow, and sees mid-market brands facing the most pressure. Restaurant data point the same way: in October, Circana found that 35% of all restaurant consumers, not just GLP-1 users, reported ordering smaller portions for health reasons.

That changes Leufgen's cautious timeline. If drug penetration in APAC stays low, products designed to deliver more nutrition in a smaller portion can still find buyers among people who are watching their weight without medication. Leufgen sees dairy proteins as well suited to this because they provide protein, fullness and nutrients in a small serving, and he expects the trend to influence beverages, snacks, healthy ageing and everyday nutrition, not just weight management.

Healthy ageing has its own momentum. IFT's Food Technology magazine, citing HealthFocus, reports that more than a third of US consumers aged 65 and over now choose foods and drinks specifically for healthy-aging benefits, and expects ingredients that support muscle mass to become priorities for older adults. For a protein supplier, that is demand that doesn't depend on a prescription at all.

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Arla isn't the only dairy company preparing. FoodNavigator reported in October that Mengniu, China's dairy giant, is also getting ready for GLP-1's effects on food. Given Leufgen's view that China has the most long-term potential, the next signal to watch is a Chinese regulatory decision that makes oral GLP-1 products widely available.

## Sources

- [GLP-1 in APAC: What food firms need to watch as adoption grows](https://www.foodnavigator.com/Article/2026/11/11/glp-1-in-apac-what-food-firms-need-to-watch-as-adoption-grows/)
- [EY-Parthenon GLP-1 Consumer Impact Report](https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/ey-parthenon-glp-1-consumer-impact-report-majority-of-glp-1-users-seek-weight-management-reshaping-shopping-carts-302916849.html) (PR Newswire)
- [The rise of GLP-1 drugs looms in restaurant chain earnings](https://www.restaurantbusinessonline.com/consumer-trends/rise-glp-1-drugs-loom-restaurant-chain-earnings) (Restaurant Business)
- [The GLP-1 Ripple Effect: How Weight Loss Medications ...](https://foodindustryexecutive.com/2026/11/the-glp-1-ripple-effect-how-weight-loss-medications-are-reshaping-food-and-drink-for-absolutely-everyone/) (Food Industry Executive)
- [State of the Restaurant Industry Report: Data & Statistics](https://business.bofa.com/en-us/content/restaurant-industry-report.html)

Tags: GLP-1, Arla Food Ingredients, Asia Pacific, food manufacturing, dairy protein, product development, portfolio strategy, foodservice, ingredient procurement, EY-Parthenon, Circana, weight management

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