# Former GLP-1 users cut fast-food spending more than current users, Numerator finds By MarketScale Newsroom · Published 2026-11-09 · Food & Beverage on MarketScale Canonical: https://www.marketscale.com/industries/food-beverage/former-glp-1-users-cut-fast-food-spending-more-than-current-users-numerator-finds > Households that stop GLP-1 drugs keep cutting fast food, while Costco and Walmart win back grocery dollars that many brands do not. ## Key points - Grocery spending recovers before brand spending after GLP-1 use ends: Costco gained 3.2% from lapsed households while three large packaged-food makers kept losing 4.3% to 6.6%. - Former GLP-1 households cut fast food 4.6%, deeper than the 3.4% cut among current users. - Signal to watch: whether Numerator's next quarterly tracker wave shows manufacturer declines among lapsed households narrowing toward the retailer trend. Households with a former GLP-1 user cut per-household spending at limited-service restaurants by 4.6% in the 12 months ended Sept. 30, according to purchase data from Chicago-based Numerator. That is a steeper drop than the 3.4% cut among households where someone is still on the medication. Food Business News, where Russell Redman reported the findings on Nov. 2, also laid out the scale. Numerator estimates that 12.3 million US households now include a lapsed GLP-1 user, and that those households account for more than $166 billion a year in grocery and fast-food spending. Most GLP-1 planning in food so far has been about people starting the drugs. This data looks at the next question, the one a grocery category manager or a packaged-food sales planner actually has to answer: when the prescription ends, which spending comes back, and who gets it? Numerator's data points three ways. Fast-food spending stays under pressure, some of the largest retailers fare better, and food makers such as Campbell's, Hormel and Utz keep losing spending. ## Drive-thru dollars stay gone The grocery side looks very different. Grocery spending among lapsed-user households fell 1.8% over the same 12 months, a smaller decline than the 2.6% among active users. So ending treatment narrows the gap at the grocery store and widens it at the restaurant counter. Former users are no longer on the drug, yet they're spending less on fast food than people who still are. Block Field The chain-level detail points the same way. Among fast-food players, per-household spending from lapsed households fell 15% at Subway, 6.8% at Arby's, 4.5% at Domino's and 1.8% at McDonald's, and Numerator said all four chains saw steeper declines than active-user households. The data doesn't say why. One plausible explanation came from Chris Costagil, vice president of food and beverage thought leadership at NIQ, who spoke on Oct. 27 at the Food. Ag. Ideas 2026 conference in Minneapolis, as reported by Noah Fish of Agweek. Costagil said GLP-1 users still crave cookies, cake and chips but think about those moments differently: a daily cookie might become a weekly one. If that rationing outlasts the prescription, a fast-food visit could be one of the treats that doesn't come back. That's an inference, but it fits the numbers. ## Retailers get the trip back first Among large grocers, former GLP-1 users are spending more than active users, and sometimes more than they did the year before. Costco's per-household spending from lapsed-user households grew 3.2%, while active-user households cut theirs by 1.6%. The other big retailers in the data show the same direction of travel. Block Field Manufacturers are another story. Numerator tracked three established packaged-food makers covering soup, meat and salty snacks, and spending from lapsed-user households kept falling at all three over the period, by 4.3% to 6.6%. Numerator drew the conclusion itself: a stronger grocery trajectory among lapsed users doesn't automatically mean recovery for every manufacturer. When households stop GLP-1 drugs, the grocery trip recovers before the grocery list does: Costco spending from lapsed households rose 3.2% while spending on three large packaged-food makers kept falling by 4.3% to 6.6%. For a retailer, the shopper is coming back. For a brand, the shopper is back in the store but may not be putting the old items in the cart. Grocery Dive reported that The Giant Company offered store tours to help customers find food that pairs well with the medications, and that ShopRite launched wellness kits for customers new to GLP-1 medications. The Numerator data can't show whether those programs caused the retailer gains. It does show that retailers are the part of the food business where this group's spending is coming back first. ## Higher prices per item, fewer bites Several speakers on the late-October conference circuit argued that the basket shrinks in volume while the price per item goes up. At the Minneapolis panel, Costagil said shoppers using the medications spend 7% more per buyer than the average household because the products they choose cost more. He put the average snack at about $4 a unit and a high-protein snack at more than $5, and said users will pay for extra protein, extra fiber or less sugar. Tom Hockenberry, vice president of nutrition and technology solutions at General Mills, told the same panel that his company focuses on nutrient density, because people who cut calories also tend to cut fiber, protein and vitamins. He cited General Mills research showing that about 60% of people on the medications don't want to overhaul their routines. That matters for anyone planning around a lapsed shopper. Most users want their familiar foods to work better for them, and few are looking to rebuild their diet from scratch. Formulators are already working on this. GLP-1s were the most preregistered longer-form education topic at SupplySide Global 2026 in Las Vegas, according to Karen Butler of SupplySide Food & Beverage Journal, and attendee interest included products that support both use and cessation. NIQ's Sherry Frey told that session that non-users want much of what GLP-1 users want but won't necessarily be drawn to products marketed to GLP-1 users. Her advice was to lead with protein and fiber callouts so the product reaches a wider audience. Allyn Kaufmann of Haleon urged developers to use ingredients that have actually been studied in a GLP-1 population, warning that marketing shouldn't get ahead of the science. For a brand team, that leaves a practical question to put to its own data. Do the products that lapsed households stopped buying sit outside the protein-and-fiber premium Costagil described? If they do, the gap with retailers could reflect what is on the label as much as how many shoppers are lapsed. ## Two market sizes, one cohort She also said nonusers want many of the same things as users but won't necessarily be drawn to products marketed to GLP-1 users. Planners should check which population a forecast is built on before relying on it. Block Field The strongest objection to a gloomy reading for brands comes from the same research world. Numerator's August tracker, as Grocery Dive reported, put the whole GLP-1 cohort at more than $660 billion in spending across consumer packaged goods, general merchandise and quick-service restaurants, with spending down nearly 4% after one year compared with similar non-user households. NIQ's 7% per-buyer premium measures something different, but it suggests a smaller basket can still be a valuable one. A manufacturer whose products fit what these shoppers now pay for could do well with this group even as total volume falls. ## What the next tracker wave would settle The current data covers one 12-month window. The tracker reports quarterly, so the next wave will show whether this split is a habit or a lag. Watch the manufacturer numbers among lapsed households. If they start moving toward the retailer gains, brands are simply recovering more slowly than stores. If they stay negative while Costco and Walmart keep growing, people who leave GLP-1 drugs are coming back to the same stores but filling their carts with different products, and brand teams will need to plan around that. ## Sources - [End of GLP-1 use shows two food spending stories](https://www.foodbusinessnews.net/articles/31281-end-of-glp-1-use-shows-two-food-spending-stories) (Food Business News) - [Are grocers ready to help shoppers getting off GLP-1s?](https://www.grocerydive.com/news/how-grocers-can-cater-to-shoppers-coming-off-weight-loss-medication-health-nutrition-GLP1-hy-vee/872945/) (Grocery Dive) - [GLP-1 users eat less but spend more on groceries, panel says](https://www.agweek.com/agribusiness/glp-1-users-eat-less-but-spend-more-on-groceries-panel-says) - [SupplySide Global: Top 3 education sessions](https://www.supplysidefbj.com/market-trends-analysis/top-3-education-sessions-from-supplyside-global) (SupplySide Food & Beverage Journal) - [Ozempic is changing how Americans spend money, and the ...](https://www.fastcompany.com/91630739/ozempic-is-changing-how-americans-spend-money-and-the-numbers-are-startling) (Fast Company) Tags: Numerator, GLP-1, Costco, Walmart, Target, Albertsons, NIQ, General Mills, consumer packaged goods, grocery retail, quick-service restaurants, category management, demand planning, food manufacturing, shopper insights --- Source: MarketScale, https://www.marketscale.com/industries/food-beverage/former-glp-1-users-cut-fast-food-spending-more-than-current-users-numerator-finds. 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